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In this post, we’ll begin with a review of the turn out numbers for Missouri from yesterday’s election and compare that to several prior election cycles. We’ll focus on the Governor, State Secretary, and US MO1 & MO3 as well as make some postulations on the next US Senate race.

Nearly 1,937,000 votes were cast in the Senatorial race with Mr. Blunt winning over Mrs. Antolinez 54.3% to 40.6%. However, a review of the last ten years shows a severe drop in voter turnout statewide. Clearly the state as a whole was not motivated to go to the polls, and I suspect it was largely a lack of Democrat turnout. That said, Democrats and liberals turned out in the metro areas as normal.

Missouri has an estimated state population of 6 million people. (All numbers will be rounded or approximated) According to State records for 2010; 4,137,500 people are registered to vote.

2010 – 1,937,000 votes for Senator.
2008 – 2,925,000 votes for President.
2006 – 2,128,000 votes for Senator.
2004 – 2,731,000 votes for President.
2002 – 1,874,000 votes for Senator.
2000 – 2,360,000 votes for President.

It’s really too early to speculate with certainty how Governor Nixon will fare in a re-election bid for 2012, but if the nation continues to flounder economically, he or any Democrat could be swept out in a similar tide that brought them up in 2006 and 2008. I’ve heard/read one or two people thinking that Mrs. Carnahan-Antolinez might try and run against Nixon. Whether she runs against Nixon or tries to hold onto the SoS seat, I suspect that with the results of this past election, Missouri will “Show her” the door.

Unless House Republicans are able to carve out some of MO1 or MO5 – as a result of Census reapportionment – I believe both will remain solidly Democrat. The ONLY way Lacy Clay can be defeated is if the Republicans, a third party and/or Tea Party promote and put forth a solid candidate. A “big” name is needed; someone who is known, has a great resume’, strong message and can appeal to the primarily Democrat/ethnic mix of North St. Louis City and County. Frankly, the last two contenders for MO1 had zero chance, especially since the county, state and national Republicans have given little to no support for that seat. If the St. Louis Tea Party and Republican Committees cannot be bothered to strongly back a candidate, there is little reason for anyone to contest Mr. Clay unless he’s thoroughly fouled himself up. As for MO3, Russ Carnahan barely held on to his seat, and while the district is historically Democratic, Ed Martin and the St. Louis Tea Party had such a strong showing there, it’s entirely possible that with two more years they can tip the balance in favor of a Republican upset. The political paradigm for MO3 may well be on the cusp of shifting.

In 2012, Mrs. McCaskill will be running for re-election. If the conservative swell holds over from this year, she will probably lose. Historically the Missouri State Auditor’s seat has been a platform for higher office. Mrs. McCaskill was once the State Auditor and my speculation is that Mr. Schweich is positioned to run against her. Everything in Mr. Schweich’s resume’ says he’s a political climber, so you heard it here first, I think he’ll run against Claire. He has nothing to lose and “everything” to win.

How do I come to these conclusions? The turnout numbers. I reviewed them this past summer after the primaries. Let’s look at them again. These numbers will focus only on total Republican and Democrat votes received. I will cover third party turnouts in a subsequent posting. The numbers tell a story.

- President; Primaries and Elections:
2000p – Dem: 265,500 Rep: 475,000
2000 – Dem: 1,111,000 Rep: 1,190,000 – 50.4 to 47.1, Bush
2004p – Dem: 418,000 Rep: 123,000
2004 – Dem: 1,259,000 Rep: 1,456,000 – 53.3 to 46.1, Bush
2008p – Dem: 824,900 Rep: 588,700
2008 – Dem: 1,442,000 Rep: 1,445,900 – 49.4 to 49.3, McCain
- Governor; Primaries and Elections:
2000 – Dem: 1,153,000 Rep: 1,131,000 – 49.1 to 48.2, Holden
2004 – Dem: 1,301,000 Rep: 1,382,000 – 50.8 to 47.9, Blunt
2008p – Dem: 358,000 Rep: 396,000
2008 – Dem: 1,680,600 Rep: 1,136,400, – 58.4 to 39.5, Nixon
- US Senate; Primaries and Elections:
2000 – Dem: 1,192,000 Rep: 1,143,000 – 50.5 to 48.4, Carnahan over Ashcroft
2002 – Dem: 911,500 Rep: 934,000 – 49.8 to 48.6, Talent over Carnahan
2004 – Dem: 1,158,000 Rep: 1,518,000 – 56.1 to 42.8, Bond
2006 – Dem: 1,055,000 Rep: 1,007,000 – 49.6 to 47.3, McCaskill
2010p – Dem: 315,500 Rep: 577,500
2010 – Dem: 786,000 Rep: 1,051,500 – 54.3 to 40.6, Blunt
- Mo. Sec. State Elections:
2000 – Dem: 1,037,000 Rep: 1,180,000 – 51.4 to 45.1, Blunt
2004 – Dem: 1,368,000 Rep: 1,243,000 – 51.1 to 46.4, Carnahan
2008 – Dem: 1,744,000 Rep: 1,004,000 – 61.8 to 35.6
- US Rep. Dist 1; Primaries and Elections:
2000 – Dem: 149,000 Rep: 42,750 – 75.2 to 21.5, Clay
2002 – Dem: 133,000 Rep: 51,500 – 70 to 27.2
2004 – Dem: 213,500 Rep: 65,000 – 75.3 to 22.8
2006p – Dem: 33,000 Rep: 9,250
2006 – Dem: 141,500 Rep: 48,000 – 72.9 to 24.7
2008 – Dem: 242,500 Rep: 0
2010p – Dem: 45,250 Rep: 16,200
2010 – Dem: 134,300 Rep: 43,250 – 73.5 to 23.7
- US Rep. Dist 3; Primaries and Elections:
2000 – Dem: 147,000 Rep: 101,000 – 57.8 to 39.7, Gephardt
2002 – Dem: 121,750 Rep: 80,250 – 59 to 39,
2004 – Dem: 147,000 Rep: 125,400 – 52.9 to 45.1, Carnahan
2006p – Dem: 48,700 Rep: 11,900
2006 – Dem: 145,200 Rep: 70,200 – 65.6 to 31.7
2008p – Dem: 38,000 Rep: 19,000
2008 – Dem: 202,500 Rep: 92,750 – 66.4 to 30.4
2010p – Dem: 46,100 Rep: 35,100
2010 – Dem: 99,000 Rep: 94,600 – 48.9 to 46.7, Carnahan over Martin

A take away that jumped out at me when tallying the numbers. In 2008 in the midst of tremendous Democrat/liberal/black voter turnout across the nation and in Missouri, more Democrats voted for governor than they did for president. John McCain took Missouri in 2008 and I believe Republicans will take it again in 2012.

The final take away and the biggest “upset” was Russ Carnahan keeping his seat. With as much as the Tea Party pushed in MO3, and though voter turnout for Republicans has steadily increased over the last six years, there was no marked increase from 2008 to 2010. While Democrats precipitously didn’t vote for Russ, they didn’t switch to Ed or any third party candidate (combined third party candidates in MO3 got 9k), and in the end it just wasn’t enough for Mr. Martin to get the numbers needed. Furthermore, MO3 certainly does have the ability to get over 100k Republican votes as 2004 attests. With all that the Tea Party did in MO3, and all that Mr. Carnahan has supposedly not done, perhaps this says something about the St. Louis Tea Party and Mr. Martin? One story was that there was too much coverage of the coming Republican tidal wave in the weeks leading up to the election, allowing the Democrats to come out and vote in fear. However, the voter turnout for Democrats in St. Louis over the last decade do not show any substantive – if any – uptick to support that here in Missouri.

You can look up this information here, here or here.

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