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Russ Carnahan

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It’s never good to count your chickens before they’ve hatched as the old saying goes… but sometimes the obvious just stares right at you.

I’ve already previously posted election day information here and made prognostications before.  I wanted to reiterate them again for those of you puttering around for information and various opinions.  For whatever wooden nickel my thoughts are worth, I hope you give me an ear – I need one anyway!

I could well be wrong on one or more – if not all – of my guesses and that’s perfectly fine.

Unless you’ve had your head in the sand for the last year and a half, you’re fully aware of the continued mess that we’ve gotten into here in the US and Obama’s administration and the Democratically controlled Congress has managed to make things worse.  Their “return” in the waning years of GW in 2006 and 2008 look to make a sharp U turn or downswing.  Their “mandate” went to their heads and all common sense went out of the window.  So, for the most part, across this nation, look for Democrats to get a spanking.  It’s still debatable how bad it will be, and thoughts are that even if it’s not enough to swap control of one or both Houses, by 2012 it’s probable that it’ll occur.

Now, here in Missouri, there are a couple of races that are looking a bit interesting.  The two big races everyone is watching are the US Senate race between Roy Blunt (R) and Robin Carnahan (D); and a US Representative race between Russ Carnahan (D) (Robin’s brother) and Ed Martin (R).  The other two races some people are looking at as on the bubble are the seats of US Representatives Ike Skelton (D) and Emanuel Cleaver (D).

Continued polling shows that Roy Blunt’s lead grows against Mrs. Carnahan.  Some are saying she’s run a shoddy campaign – perhaps as an excuse.  Either way, if Mr. Blunt doesn’t win I’d be shocked.

Some of the last polls for MO3 – Russ Carnahan – show that the Democrat is still in the lead, but local and state Tea Party people still believe it’s doable for Mr. Martin to win.  I don’t like to be a spoilsport – okay, maybe I do – but I just don’t see it happening for Ed.  That said, if Mr. Martin does win, I think it’ll be razor close.  Hey, a win is a win, but the district I think is just too heavily weighted against Mr. Martin and I just do not see the numbers.  The Tea Party has claimed they’ve got the fervor to give Ed the win, but that didn’t translate into increased turnout in August during the primary.  Even combining the Republican votes cast, more Democrats voted in MO3 in August.  Perhaps there was a lot of assumption and laziness going on among people who’d vote for Ed.  That said, Prop C was on the ballot in August and that brought a lot of conservatives to the polls.  One would think that should have translated to a better result for Mr. Martin.  In fact the voter turnout among Republicans in MO3 was higher than it has been, but the differences were still stark.  I’m still calling this one for Russ.

I haven’t followed too closely Mr. Cleaver’s or Mr. Skelton’s races because one, there hasn’t been as much coverage on them nationally, and secondly, there hasn’t been much coverage on them locally (I live in St. Louis).  Last I’d heard both were toss ups and have continued to be toss ups.  Mr’s Cleaver and Skelton both went into 2010 looking like they’d be able to handily keep their seats, but as the year wore on, and especially after some false claims and missteps, both have become politically vulnerable.  I’m not a real betting man, so I won’t give a firm answer, but I’d not be surprised at all to see both men losing to their Republican opponents.

Statewide voter turnout will determine the State Auditor.  As Roy will no doubt win, I suspect that Mr. Schweich will sail along to victory on his coattails.

As much as I’d love to see Mr. Lacy Clay, MO1 lose his seat, it’s just not going to happen.  The MO1 district is more Democratic than even MO3.  Mr. Clay is also another dynastic politician.  The Republicans and Tea Party really have not gotten behind any candidate for years in MO1.  There has not been a Republican Representative for MO1 since 1949.  Part of the other “problem” is gerrymandering (to one degree or another, both parties do it).  Mr. Clay sits on a board that oversees Census results and there has frankly been white flight for one reason or another from St. Louis County to St. Charles County.  Most of the conservatives in St. Louis moved to St. Charles.  MO2 has swung fairly Republican because of this.  The only way that Mr. Clay is going to lose his seat is due to either his own fault or if a strong, vibrant candidate is placed against him.  It’d wind up being a Republican – though I’d love to see a Constitution Party candidate win – and they’d need to be a fairly well known person with impecable character and a strong resume as well as meaty platform.  The Tea Party and Republican Party would also need to do some heavy canvassing and promoting.  If the Republicans really want to make the state “red” in 2012, then they need to begin grooming a candidate now because I just don’t see Robyn Hamlin winning, just as Mark Byrne didn’t.  Frankly I’m not holding my breath any time soon on the St. Louis Tea Party or the Missouri Republican Party seriously campaigning against Mr. Clay.  That said, maybe they are looking at 2012, trying to focus on Mr. Carnahan this go-round.

The State legislative offices are just too numerous for me to follow.  For the most part I suspect that the parties will stay the same, certainly in my district and the surrounding area.  Many candidates are “running” unopposed.  That’s another area that the Tea Party and Republican Party needs to start working if they really want to dynamically shift the political spectrum.

Republican/conservative turn-out and the moderate shift to the Republicans might help Bill Corrigan over Charles Dooley, but I’ve no clue – sorry.

Of the statewide ballot measures, I suspect that the three Amendments will pass as well as Prop A.  Prop B is iffy.  I’ve voiced my opinion on it already and I hope it fails, but considering how it’s worded (summary) and that it tugs on the heart strings, I have a feeling it’ll go much like the 2006 Stem cell/cloning bill here, a squeaker victory.

On Nov. 3rd I’ll see how well I did! And just so you know, I don’t intend on voting along a party line because I’ve gotten to a point where character counts more than platform and record. I’m tired of the game and being told year in and year out ‘A’ or ‘B’. I am ever the recalcitrant curmudgeon and I revel in it.